{
  "scope": "Bend city, Oregon. Decennial census counts only. All twelve figures are read from a US Census Bureau source; none is interpolated, and the intercensal years are deliberately absent because they are not published for places.",
  "readOn": "2026-09-13",
  "research": "docs/research/2026-09-13-population-series.md",
  "promise": {
    "target": 100000,
    "oath": "until Bend has a population of one hundred thousand",
    "note": "The oath's condition, a hundred thousand people, was met in 2021 on both current estimate series (see `reached`). The 2020 census count sits 822 below it and is the last full count; content doctrine §3 still requires the site to name the measure wherever it prints a figure."
  },
  "club": {
    "from": 1912,
    "to": 1924,
    "label": "the club, 1912–1924",
    "sources": [
      "bb-1912-07-24",
      "bb-1924-05-13"
    ],
    "note": "Both bounds are newspaper dates, not legal ones. The Bulletin names the Emblem Club and its blue-and-gold colours on 24 July 1912, which is the earliest the club appears anywhere; the stockholders vote to disband at the annual meeting of 12 May 1924, reported the next afternoon. No charter and no dissolution record has been found, so the band is the span the paper can see the club in, and the site says so rather than drawing a line it cannot date."
  },
  "sources": {
    "1950-vol": {
      "title": "1950 Census of Population, Vol. I, Number of Inhabitants, Oregon",
      "url": "https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennial/1950/population-volume-1/vol-01-40.pdf",
      "tables": "Table 4 (cities of 10,000 or more from earliest census to 1950), Table 6 (counties by minor civil divisions, 1930 to 1950), Table 7 (all incorporated places, 1950 and 1940)",
      "recordId": "census-1950-vol"
    },
    "1970-vol": {
      "title": "1970 Census of Population, Number of Inhabitants, Oregon, PC(1)-A39",
      "url": "https://www2.census.gov/prod2/decennial/documents/1970a_or-01.pdf",
      "tables": "Table 6 (Population of Places: 1970 and 1960)",
      "recordId": "census-1970-vol"
    },
    "cph-2-39-1990": {
      "title": "1990 Census of Population and Housing, Population and Housing Unit Counts, Oregon (CPH-2-39)",
      "url": "https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennial/1990/cph-2/cph-2-39.pdf",
      "recordId": "census-1990-vol"
    },
    "phc-3-39-2000": {
      "title": "Census 2000, Population and Housing Unit Counts, Oregon (PHC-3-39)",
      "url": "https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/2003/dec/phc-3-39.pdf",
      "recordId": "census-2000-vol"
    },
    "cph-2-39-2010": {
      "title": "2010 Census of Population and Housing, Population and Housing Unit Counts, Oregon (CPH-2-39)",
      "url": "https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennial/2010/cph-2/cph-2-39.pdf",
      "recordId": "census-2010"
    },
    "pl94-171-2020": {
      "title": "2020 Census Redistricting Data (P.L. 94-171) Summary File, Oregon",
      "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/01-Redistricting_File--PL_94-171/Oregon/or2020.pl.zip",
      "tables": "Table P1 (or000012020.pl), logical record 0004700; geographic header orgeo2020.pl, SUMLEV 160, GEOID 1600000US4105800",
      "recordId": "census-2020"
    }
  },
  "counts": [
    {
      "year": 1910,
      "population": 536,
      "sourceKey": "1950-vol",
      "verified": true,
      "note": "Earliest census after incorporation. Table 4 prints the 1920 increase as 4,879 at 910.3 percent; 4,879 ÷ 536 = 910.26, which reconciles both figures exactly."
    },
    {
      "year": 1920,
      "population": 5415,
      "sourceKey": "1950-vol",
      "verified": true,
      "note": "Confirmed two ways: 8,848 − 3,433 (the printed 1930 increase), and the 910.3 percent check above."
    },
    {
      "year": 1930,
      "population": 8848,
      "sourceKey": "1950-vol",
      "verified": true,
      "note": "Read directly from Table 6: \"Bend city, total. 11,409 | 10,021 | 8,848\"."
    },
    {
      "year": 1940,
      "population": 10021,
      "sourceKey": "1950-vol",
      "verified": true,
      "note": "Agrees across Tables 4, 6 and 7 of the same volume."
    },
    {
      "year": 1950,
      "population": 11409,
      "sourceKey": "1950-vol",
      "verified": true,
      "note": "Agrees across Tables 4, 6 and 7."
    },
    {
      "year": 1960,
      "population": 11936,
      "sourceKey": "1970-vol",
      "verified": true,
      "note": "The slowest decade in the series: 527 people in ten years."
    },
    {
      "year": 1970,
      "population": 13710,
      "sourceKey": "1970-vol",
      "verified": true,
      "note": "The strongest point in the series: the same figure appears in the 1970 volume and, independently, in the 1990 CPH-2-39."
    },
    {
      "year": 1980,
      "population": 17263,
      "sourceKey": "cph-2-39-1990",
      "verified": true,
      "note": "Also printed in PHC-3-39."
    },
    {
      "year": 1990,
      "population": 20447,
      "publishedAs": 20469,
      "sourceKey": "cph-2-39-1990",
      "verified": true,
      "note": "Two official values. The 1990 volume prints 20,469; the 2000 and 2010 volumes print 20,447 flagged 'r' for revised. This site uses the revised figure and says so."
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "population": 52029,
      "sourceKey": "phc-3-39-2000",
      "verified": true,
      "boundaryChange": true,
      "note": "Reads as 154 percent growth, but the Bureau's geographic-change notes for Deschutes County say \"Bend city … gained and lost territory\". Part of this rise is annexation, not arrival."
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "population": 76639,
      "sourceKey": "cph-2-39-2010",
      "verified": true,
      "note": "Confirms a figure the earlier research could not. The real 2010→2020 increase is 22,539; a 23,016 figure once circulated and is unsupported."
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "population": 99178,
      "sourceKey": "pl94-171-2020",
      "verified": true,
      "note": "Read from table P1 of the Oregon P.L. 94-171 file: P0010001 = 99,178 at logical record 0004700, cross-checked against POP100 in the geographic header. First read 2026-09-10 and recorded in docs/research/sources.md; re-read independently 2026-09-13, reaching the same logical record. 822 below the promise. Do not confuse with the 2020 estimates base (99,221) or the July 1 2020 estimate (99,687); neither is the count."
    }
  ],
  "estimatesNote": "The four figures in `estimates` are the 2019 to 2021 estimates the site carried when the record stopped there. Each was superseded by its own publisher's later series and they are kept, marked superseded, as the record of how the answer moved; they are no longer plotted. The two current series are in `current`, read 2026-09-20, and the answer to the oath's question is in `reached`.",
  "estimates": [
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "population": 97620,
      "measure": "estimated",
      "series": "Census Bureau Vintage 2019",
      "asOf": "1 July 2018",
      "recordId": "census-v2019",
      "superseded": true
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "population": 100421,
      "measure": "estimated",
      "series": "Census Bureau Vintage 2019",
      "asOf": "1 July 2019",
      "recordId": "census-v2019",
      "note": "the first year this series crossed the line, and superseded by the 2020 count",
      "superseded": true
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "population": 92840,
      "measure": "estimated",
      "series": "Portland State, certified",
      "asOf": "1 July 2020",
      "recordId": "psu-2020",
      "note": "certified before the census count was published; the series was rebased afterwards",
      "superseded": true
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "population": 100922,
      "measure": "estimated",
      "series": "Portland State, certified",
      "asOf": "1 July 2021",
      "recordId": "psu-2021",
      "note": "the first Portland State certified estimate at or above the line",
      "superseded": true
    }
  ],
  "claimedNotCounted": {
    "townOfTwoThousand": {
      "claim": "a town of two thousand",
      "source": "archive/1913-book/transcription.md",
      "recordId": "book-1913",
      "status": "sourced to the 1913 book, not to any census",
      "nearest": [
        {
          "year": 1910,
          "population": 536
        },
        {
          "year": 1920,
          "population": 5415
        }
      ],
      "note": "The 1913 book calls Bend a town of two thousand - the founder speaking in the year of the oath. That is a contemporary claim, and the only source for the figure. The intercensal years are not published for places, so interpolating between 536 and 5,415 to reach 1912 would be guessing a source value (AGENTS.md hard rule 1). The site keeps the figure because it is sourced and attributes it because it is a claim, not a count."
    }
  },
  "current": [
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "population": 102397,
      "measure": "estimated",
      "series": "Census Bureau Vintage 2025",
      "asOf": "1 July 2021",
      "recordId": "census-v2025"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "population": 103172,
      "measure": "estimated",
      "series": "Census Bureau Vintage 2025",
      "asOf": "1 July 2022",
      "recordId": "census-v2025"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "population": 104598,
      "measure": "estimated",
      "series": "Census Bureau Vintage 2025",
      "asOf": "1 July 2023",
      "recordId": "census-v2025"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "population": 106743,
      "measure": "estimated",
      "series": "Census Bureau Vintage 2025",
      "asOf": "1 July 2024",
      "recordId": "census-v2025"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "population": 107342,
      "measure": "estimated",
      "series": "Census Bureau Vintage 2025",
      "asOf": "1 July 2025",
      "recordId": "census-v2025"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "population": 101417,
      "measure": "certified",
      "series": "Portland State, certified (2025 report)",
      "asOf": "1 July 2021",
      "recordId": "psu-2025",
      "revised": true
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "population": 102732,
      "measure": "certified",
      "series": "Portland State, certified (2025 report)",
      "asOf": "1 July 2022",
      "recordId": "psu-2025",
      "revised": true
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "population": 103827,
      "measure": "certified",
      "series": "Portland State, certified (2025 report)",
      "asOf": "1 July 2023",
      "recordId": "psu-2025",
      "revised": true
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "population": 105552,
      "measure": "certified",
      "series": "Portland State, certified (2025 report)",
      "asOf": "1 July 2024",
      "recordId": "psu-2025",
      "revised": true
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "population": 107079,
      "measure": "certified",
      "series": "Portland State, certified (2025 report)",
      "asOf": "1 July 2025",
      "recordId": "psu-2025",
      "revised": false
    }
  ],
  "currentReadOn": "2026-09-20",
  "reached": {
    "year": 2021,
    "series": [
      "census-v2025",
      "psu-2025"
    ],
    "latest": {
      "census": 107342,
      "psu": 107079,
      "asOf": "1 July 2025"
    },
    "note": "Bend passed the oath's hundred thousand in 2021 on both current series and has been above it every year since. The April 2020 census, the last full count, was 822 short; the next full count is 2030."
  }
}